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World War Three, anyone?

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  • World War Three, anyone?

    I just came upon this article in today's Guardian : http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...ollision-japan

    Interesting times, yes? Actually the growing enmity between China and Japan has been preying on my mind a lot over the course of the past year.
    Last edited by Kymba334; 01-02-2014, 02:55 PM. Reason: still dyslexic
    Mwana wa simba ni simba

    The child of a lion is also a lion - Swahili Wisdom

  • #2
    Don't worry, this is typical historical cycle action. After a depression, we should expect preparation for war. Unfortunately, as our UK Government has sold of most of our ships, we won't have any destroyers to sell to the Yanks.
    Papa was a Rolling Stone......

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Pebble View Post
      Don't worry, this is typical historical cycle action. After a depression, we should expect preparation for war. Unfortunately, as our UK Government has sold of most of our ships, we won't have any destroyers to sell to the Yanks.
      No cause for alarm then, Pebble? - that's nice to know.
      Mwana wa simba ni simba

      The child of a lion is also a lion - Swahili Wisdom

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      • #4
        An actual shooting war seems highly unlikely, given the realities of modern combat. There will probably be, though, games of diplomatic maneuvering that are driven to new levels of sophistication and threat. Both Japan and China have not only a long-standing enmity but also much experience in the art of influence. Whatever happens, I hope for peaceful resolutions while knowing it will all be quite interesting to see!

        "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained."
        - Mark Twain, notebook entry, 1898.

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        • #5
          Perhaps it is all about justifying the billions spent on arms. But both have too much too lose. And with them world economy. WW III won't happen, or at least won't start there.
          The war games' designers will be happy though, new inspirations.
          Google ergo sum

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          • #6
            Europe will never go to war, they have too much too loose. It was claimed in 1914.

            Just been hearing the trails on the radio for the commemoration of the Kaiser's War. I wonder if we are going to have to re-fight it in 'real time' anniversaries (Easter 2016 is going to be difficult in Ireland, I suspect).....
            Papa was a Rolling Stone......

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            • #7
              Originally posted by Pebble View Post
              Europe will never go to war, they have too much too loose. It was claimed in 1914....
              Aye, but back then (far as anyone knows) there weren't half a dozen countries with the ability to blow up the entire surface of the earth. That changes the strategic calculations mightily.

              Plus, I can't imagine what the Chinese war games planners think when they look at Japan. All those jakey reactors all over the place & apparently ready to start leaking and causing all sorts of problems if they get jostled or even get wet. Like having nuclear Gremlins to contend with. Like L'Etranger posted, there will certainly be all kinds of wacky new scenarios to play with but not likely executed.

              In the Great War we had entangling alliances between nations that caused much of the trouble. These days we have entangled economies with no way to separate them anymore. As bellicose as some leaders like to get, they know this all too well.

              "When we remember we are all mad, the mysteries disappear and life stands explained."
              - Mark Twain, notebook entry, 1898.

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              • #8
                Here's an article that throws the Middle East into the equation, but says the whole situation instead resembles the situation before 1914.

                http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...n-9039184.html

                I wonder how the diplomatic breakdown between the US and India will develop. It seems as though India is attempting to show it, too, is country to be reckoned with. Perhaps, in response to the way China reacts to the US, it is sending the message to China that it can deal with the US in the same way as China does, and, therefore, can deal with China in the same way?
                You see, it's... it's no good, Montag. We've all got to be alike. The only way to be happy is for everyone to be made equal.

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                "I am an observer of life, a non-participant who takes no sides. I am in the regimented society, but not of it." Moondog, 1964

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                • #9
                  World economies are too intertwined. Gaining dominance is one thing, shooting eachother's markets to pieces is another. What is always dangerous is if a regime is faltering or obviously losing the support of its followers because of bad leadership (resulting in hunger as in North Korea) -then there is a temptation to start an external conflict to rally the population around the flag, so to speak.
                  Last edited by L'Etranger; 01-11-2014, 06:14 AM.
                  Google ergo sum

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by L'Etranger View Post
                    World economies are too intertwined. Gaining dominance is one thing, shooting eachother's markets to pieces is another. What is always dangerous is if a regime is faltering or obviously losing the support of its followers because of bad leadership (resulting in hunger as in North Korea) -then there is a temptation to start an external conflict to rally the population around the flag, so to speak.
                    It was said Europe was too entwined to go to war in 1914.......

                    Meanwhile

                    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...nst-Japan.html

                    Currently, two separate distractions in the Ukraine and Venezuela, perfect opportunity....
                    Papa was a Rolling Stone......

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                    • #11
                      But what is there to win? Even Christmas is no longer so important that promising the troops to be "home by Christmas" has any appeal.
                      Google ergo sum

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        In the light of an imminent invasion of the Ukraine by Russia things have become less safe to predict now, on March 1st, I must admit. Still, even a WW is not in any of the major players' interest. But wait - there's only one major player in this - Mr. Putin (while some others are just braggards).
                        Google ergo sum

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by L'Etranger View Post
                          In the light of an imminent invasion of the Ukraine by Russia things have become less safe to predict now, on March 1st, I must admit. Still, even a WW is not in any of the major players' interest. But wait - there's only one major player in this - Mr. Putin (while some others are just braggards).
                          The EU's shortcomings on display. Our slip's showing.

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                          • #14
                            The EU's interest is fairly reasonable, to have a stable and somewaht democratic neighbour in the East. Just that they and the Americans approached the entire matter of the former Soviet states with extreme wishful thinking, namely that the formula "Freedom plus Money" alone would produce secure changes.
                            The US are so bogged down by their own problems, they are virtually bankrupt (which was as foreseeable as the next sunset, also for her enemies) and she dedicated too many resources on destabilsing the EU's efforts to become a a key player in the world, trying to ruin the Euro, spying on us - America's logically allies etc.

                            Back to the Ukraine: Corruption,strongmen and power politics have been the political culture for centuries. Ironically, that's a kind of stability that many superpowers love! Why did we keep Pinochet or Saddam (while he served as a bullwark against Iran)? Why doesn't anybody do something about Lukashenko in Belarus?
                            Russia let Ukraine muck around independently as long as it served as a filter that kept democracy away from Russia. In those moments when independent thinking surfaces Russia gets nervous and puts on the pressure. Initially by screwing the price of gas and energy so high that progressive governments (themselves not free of corruption) caved in, and when the pro-Russian Yanukovic came to power they lowered the gas price again drastically to secure him the goodwill of the people.
                            This time, when things threatened to go out of hand - perhaps with an energy reminding of the "Arab Spring" - Russia pulls the age old card of their "ethnic monorities being in danger" to moblize support in the Russian public and parliament. What she really means is securing the gigantic naval bases on the Crimean peninsula. Remember Russia's problem has always been securing access to the seas, and how bitterly she depended on the allied supply convoys to Murmansk during WW2? Global warming is helping her now in Siberia, but you don't forsake what you already posess - it is the navy seapot that serves the Russian warships in the Mediterranean Sea (Syria borders on it, ever heard of it?)

                            And then there are other factions with interest in this, Nationalists, Fascists, arms industry and certainly including international criminal organisations that are not interested in "order", but rely on chaos to do big business.
                            Last edited by L'Etranger; 03-02-2014, 01:18 AM.
                            Google ergo sum

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by L'Etranger View Post
                              The EU's interest is fairly reasonable, to have a stable and somewaht democratic neighbour in the East. Just that they and the Americans approached the entire matter of the former Soviet states with extreme wishful thinking, namely that the formula "Freedom plus Money" alone would produce secure changes.

                              ...

                              And then there are other factions with interest in this, Nationalists, Fascists, arms industry and certainly including international criminal organisations that are not interested in "order", but rely on chaos to do big business.
                              Exactly. We thought we could just breeze in preach democracy and throw some money (not too much, we're skint), at the problem. No doubt with the usual nefarious fiddling about, behind the scenes. Unfortunately, Putin understands the principles of 'gangster capitalism' all too well.

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